Based on the structured data, Riga is predicted to win this match, supported by a consensus between market and model probabilities, along with superior form and standings.
Form Analysis: Riga shows stronger recent form with a 2-win streak, scoring 7 goals and conceding 5 in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Tukums has a 1-loss streak, scoring 3 goals and conceding 5, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with no clean sheets.
Key Factors: 1. Riga's higher league position (4th vs 8th) and 5-point advantage indicate better overall performance. 2. Riga's recent momentum with a win streak contrasts with Tukums' loss streak. 3. The head-to-head history favors Riga with 8 wins in the last 5 meetings, though this data point may be inconsistent as it lists more wins than meetings.
Conclusion: The data points to Riga as the likely winner due to better form, standings, and historical edge, despite close market odds.