Based on the data, the match is highly balanced with a slight edge to Philadelphia Union as the predicted winner, supported by both market and model probabilities favoring them marginally.
Form Analysis: CF Montreal has a 2-loss streak, scoring 7 goals and conceding 14 in their last 5 matches, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 2.8 conceded. Philadelphia Union has a 1-loss streak, scoring 3 goals and conceding 9 in their last 5, with an average of 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Both teams have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 games.
Key Factors: 1. Market and model probabilities align slightly in favor of Philadelphia Union (34% away win vs. 33% home win and draw). 2. Philadelphia Union has a better head-to-head record with 5 wins compared to CF Montreal's 3 wins in their last 5 meetings. 3. CF Montreal has more injuries (1 player out) but Philadelphia Union has 4 players out, which could impact their performance.
Conclusion: The data indicates a close contest with Philadelphia Union having a minor advantage due to historical performance and consensus probabilities, though confidence is low due to balanced odds and poor form from both sides.