Based on the data, Sassuolo is predicted to have a slight edge in this match, with a 35% probability of winning, compared to Cagliari's 32% and a 33% chance of a draw. This aligns with the market probabilities showing a very close contest and the API-Football model favoring Sassuolo as the predicted winner.
Form Analysis: Sassuolo has a form of LLWWW with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, while Cagliari has LLLDD with 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Both teams are on losing streaks—Sassuolo with 2 consecutive losses and Cagliari with 3—indicating recent struggles, but Sassuolo's offensive output is higher.
Key Factors: 1. Sassuolo's higher league position (11th vs 15th) and 8-point advantage suggest better overall performance. 2. Home advantage with a rating of 0.55 provides a slight boost for Sassuolo. 3. Cagliari's poor form, including failing to score in 2 of their last 5 games, weakens their attacking threat.
Conclusion: The data points to Sassuolo as the more likely winner due to superior form metrics and home advantage, though the match is expected to be tight with a high probability of a draw or narrow victory.