Based on the data, Arsenal is predicted to win with a slight edge, as indicated by the market probabilities (34% away win) and model probabilities (45% away win, with predicted winner Arsenal and advice for double chance draw or Arsenal).
Form Analysis: Both teams show strong form with unbeaten streaks: Southampton has WWDWW (5 unbeaten streak, 3 clean sheets in last 5 games, avg goals scored 1.4, conceded 0.4), and Arsenal has WWWWW (5 unbeaten streak, 3 clean sheets in last 5 games, avg goals scored 1.6, conceded 0.4). Arsenal has slightly better offensive metrics.
Key Factors: 1. Arsenal has no injuries, while Southampton has 11 players out (all doubtful), potentially weakening their squad. 2. Head-to-head history favors Arsenal with 5 wins in last 5 meetings, compared to Southampton's 2 wins and 3 draws. 3. Home advantage for Southampton is rated 0.55, but this is offset by Arsenal's superior form and injury advantage.
Conclusion: The data supports Arsenal as the favorite due to their injury-free squad, strong recent form, and historical dominance, aligning with market and model predictions for an away win or draw.
